Buy, hold, sell: Orica, GQG Partners, BHP shares

The latest results and business updates provide a view of the outlook for Orica, BHP and GQG Partners with recommendations of Orica (Buy), BHP (Hold) and GQG Partners (Sell).

1. Orica Limited (ASX: ORI)

Orica Limited (ASX: ORI), on 1 July 2026, made the decision to move ahead with the development of the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub in Kooragang Island, NSW.

The process will involve the utilization of recycled water and renewable electricity to generate hydrogen for the manufacturing of ammonia.

Construction is planned to start in 2026, with first production targeted for early 2029.

It is estimated that the plant will:

• Produce up to 4,700 tonnes of renewable hydrogen annually

• Produce 26,600 tonnes of low carbon ammonia

• Reduce Orica’s natural gas feedstock demand by about 7.5%

2026 Half-Year Results

On 7 May 2026, Orica shared its 2026 half-year result.

ORI reported:

• NPAT pre-SI: $283.1 million, improved 8%

• EBIT: $512.0 million, up 5%

• Net operating cash flow: $230.6 million

• Interim dividend: Increased 14% to 28.5 cents per share

ORI completed its $500 million share buy-back and started a cost reduction program targeting at least $100 million.

It also agreed to acquire Nelson Brothers’ explosives business and acquired the Danafloat product range.

2. BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP)

BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP) announced its impressive financial performance in the year ending 30 June 2026, in which copper turned out to be the primary contributor to the earnings and iron ore recorded record production and sales on 18 August 2026.

BHP also reported stronger coal performance and industry leading cost positions across key operations.

Growth and Development Plans

Copper growth remains central to BHP’s plans, with projects progressing across Chile, Australia and Argentina.

The company approved funding for a new concentrator at Escondida and continues work on Vicuña and other partnerships.

In iron ore, plans for Ministers North aim to sustain production.

Jansen potash development in Canada also remains on track.

Cash Generation and Outlook

The strong cash generation enabled lower net debt and substantial shareholder returns.

Capital and exploration spending increased, while the final dividend was the largest in four years.

Commodity demand is expected to benefit from electrification, digital infrastructure, artificial intelligence, energy security and continued industrialisation, although global growth is expected to moderate.

3. GQG Partners (ASX: GQG)

GQG Partners (ASX: GQG), on 11 September 2026, reported that funds under management fell to US$149.2 billion at 31 August 2026, from US$156.4 billion at 31 July 2026.

Net flows were negative US$4.3 billion.

Investment performance reduced FUM by US$2.9 billion.

FUM was also down US$14.7 billion from 31 December 2025.

The continued outflows create uncertainty around earnings and income. Until investment performance and FUM stabilise or improve, the sell recommendation is retained.

2026 Half-Year Results

On 21 August 2026, GQG released its half-year results for the period ended 30 June 2026.

FUM reached US$156 billion, after net outflows of US$15.1 billion during the first half.

Investment performance added US$7.2 billion.

Net revenue was US$397.2 million, down 1.4% from the previous year, while average FUM rose 1.0% to US$164.5 billion.

Management fee revenue increased 1.9%, with the average fee realisation rate rising to 48.6 basis points.

Net operating income came to US$301.8 million, compared with US$307.2 million previously.

The operating margin was 76.0%, against 76.2%, while net income was US$228.4 million versus US$230.2 million.

Source: Company Report