Iron Ore Weakness: Outlook for BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue Investors

Despite falling iron ore prices, BHP, Rio Tinto and Fortescue continue to report strong production, stable operations and progress on long term growth plans.

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP)

BHP Group Ltd (ASX: BHP) shared its latest business update in 2026 and showing its strong position in the mining industry. Copper EBITDA contribution has more than doubled since FY23 and now makes up 51% of total EBITDA. Copper production has also increased by around 30% over the past four years. The company has a strong balance sheet, steady cash generation, and the potential to unlock up to US$10 billion in undervalued capital. It continues to return value to shareholders through its minimum 50% dividend policy and additional yearly returns.

BHP also plans to improve productivity by using its operating system, technology, and partnerships while aiming for 3–4% copper equivalent production growth each year until 2035. In its operational update for the nine months ended 31 March 2026, the company said FY26 copper production is expected to be in the upper half of its guidance range. Iron ore performance remains on track, Samarco is expected to reach the top end of guidance, and cost guidance has improved at Escondida.

Rio Tinto Limited (ASX: RIO)

released its production for Q1 2026 on 21 April 2026. Rio achieved a growth of 9% in copper equivalent production compared to last year due to increasing production from the Oyu Tolgoi mine. Iron ore production from Pilbara saw the second largest Q1 production since 2018, up by 13% from the previous year while sales increased by 2%. However, two tropical cyclones reduced iron ore shipments by around 8 million tonnes with about half of those volumes expected to be recovered. The first shipment of high grade Simandou iron ore was also delivered to China with first sales completed in April.

Rio Tinto kept the outlook for production, sales and costs unchanged for 2026. During Q1, Rio Tinto invested $180M in exploration and evaluation and implemented productivity programs which were estimated to provide annual benefits of $650M. Even as iron ore prices are falling, the company said its iron ore operations and supply chains have remained largely unaffected despite ongoing global uncertainty.

Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG),

Fortescue Limited (ASX: FMG), on 24 April 2026, announced the quarterly production report of March 2026. The company moved 48.4 million tonnes of iron ore in the quarter, with the movement for the year to date rising to a record 148.7 million tonnes, a rise of 4% from last year. Iron Bridge shipments were affected by tropical cyclones and leading the company to reduce its FY26 Iron Bridge shipment guidance to 9–10 million tonnes. The overall FY26 iron ore shipment guidance of 195–205 million tonnes remained unchanged despite falling iron ore prices.

The company also reported a cash balance of US$4.2 billion, completed the Alta Copper acquisition, and continued work on renewable energy and green metal projects. Iron ore exploration also progressed across the Pilbara.

On 12 May 2026, Fortescue announced that the Federal Court ruled it must pay compensation to the Yindjibarndi Ngurra Aboriginal Corporation RNTBC. The decision includes around A$100,000 for economic loss plus interest and A$150 million for cultural loss.

(Source: Company Report)