Top ASX stock BHP improves copper production outlook
BHP released its half year operational review on Tuesday and upgraded its FY26 copper guidance which positions the company to benefit significantly from the ongoing boom in copper prices.
BHP Group Limited (ASX: BHP)
BHP Group Limited on 20 January 2026 reported strong operational performance for the half year ended 31 December 2025 which was driven by record production across its copper and iron ore assets.
The performance was supported by a favourable commodity price environment as copper prices rose 32% and iron ore prices increased 4% year-on-year.
Total copper production was 984 kt and iron ore production was 133.8 Mt while the company raised FY26 group copper production guidance to 1,900 to 2,000 kt which reflects stronger output from Escondida and Antamina.
Escondida delivered record concentrator throughput which supported an upgraded FY26 guidance range of 1,200 to 1,275 kt.
WA Iron Ore achieved record first half production and shipments which benefited from improved rail and port efficiency.
BHP entered into a US$2 billion infrastructure transaction with Global Infrastructure Partners involving WAIO’s inland power network while retaining operational control of the asset.
For HY26, capital and exploration expenditure is expected to be around US$5.3 billion while net debt is projected to remain between US$14 and US$15 billion while the current annual dividend yield stands at 3.58%.
The Jansen potash project is now 75% complete and remains on track for first production in mid-2027.
Despite the elevated capital requirement, Jansen Stage 1 is expected to deliver 4.15 Mtpa with EBITDA margins of approximately 63% to 64% and an updated IRR range of 7.9% to 9.1%.
BHP also highlighted the long-term expansion potential of Jansen which could lift ultimate capacity to 16 to 17 Mtpa which positions potash as a major future growth pillar.
The company moves into the second half of FY26 with strong operational momentum and a long-term strategy to scale copper production towards 2 Mt in the 2030s.
(Source: Company Announcements)
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